The World's Weather Is Loading
a Hot, Dry Summer.

I keep a small notebook of numbers that scare me a little. This month I added one: on 21 June 2026, the average temperature of the world's oceans — the whole global ocean between 60°N and 60°S — hit a daily record of about 20.86°C, edging past the previous highs from 2023 and 2024, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The ocean is enormous; nudging its average even a tenth of a degree takes a staggering amount of trapped heat.

After a weak La Niña faded early in 2026, the tropical Pacific flipped. NOAA declared El Niño conditions on 11 June 2026, and the World Meteorological Organization puts the odds of El Niño persisting through June–August at around 80%. WMO's blunt summary for the season: a “nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures” across almost all populated regions.

Europegot the summer's first gut-punch — a late-June heatwave sustained by an “omega block” that parked hot North African air over the continent. France, Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland all broke national or local temperature records. The WHO reported more than 1,300 excess deaths across Europe since 21 June. Only about one in five European homes has air conditioning.

South Asiahits close to home. India just logged one of its driest Junes on record — roughly a 40% rainfall deficit, the fifth-driest June since 1901. El Niño years typically weaken the monsoon, and that's the fear for farmers across the subcontinent, including here in Nepal, where the same monsoon feeds our rivers and hydropower.

North America'sinterior West carries the strongest U.S. heat signal (50–60% probability of above-normal temperatures), while one genuine silver lining emerges in the Atlantic: NOAA forecasts a below-normal hurricane season, since El Niño's wind shear tends to tear apart tropical storms.